🌍Macro & market cycles
Inflation, interest rates, recessions and sector rotation — the macro context that makes stock picking make sense.
Macro & market cycles — overview
The macroeconomic context is the backdrop against which individual stock selection plays out. Inflation, interest rates, the business cycle and sector rotation decide which kinds of companies have a tailwind and which fight the current. When a central bank raises rates, growth and leveraged companies tend to come under pressure; when rates fall, they revive. Understanding the cycle phase — expansion, peak, recession, recovery — helps place every signal into a wider picture rather than deciding in a vacuum. Key macro variables share relationships that repeat through history. Inflation and interest rates usually move together, the dollar index influences commodities and multinational profits, and the bond yield curve has historically been a watched indicator of economic change. Sector rotation then describes how capital shifts between sectors depending on where we are in the cycle — defensive sectors (utilities, staples) tend to be stronger in uncertainty, cyclicals (technology, industrials) in expansion. QMA reflects the macro regime in its scoring: in a different environment the pillars carry different weight. The goal is not to forecast the market with certainty — nobody can — but to understand the conditions in which you decide. The scenario descriptions here are structured and conditional (bull / base / bear), never forecasts stated with certainty.
Macro & market cycles articles
Yield Curve Inversion: A Signal Economists Have Watched for Decades
When the interest rates on two-year bonds climbed above those of ten-year bonds, economists took notice. What does this 'inversion' really mean — and why it isn't a crystal ball.
How to Tell What's Moving the Market Today — and Why
Do you refresh ten news sites and a dozen tickers every morning just to piece together what is happening? This plain-language guide shows what actually moves markets — earnings, economic data, sector rotation, catalysts, geopolitics — and, more importantly, how to read the "why" behind a move instead of chasing the top gainers.