🌍Macro & market cycles
Inflation, interest rates, recessions and sector rotation — the macro context that makes stock picking make sense.
Macro & market cycles — overview
The macroeconomic context is the backdrop against which individual stock selection plays out. Inflation, interest rates, the business cycle and sector rotation decide which kinds of companies have a tailwind and which fight the current. When a central bank raises rates, growth and leveraged companies tend to come under pressure; when rates fall, they revive. Understanding the cycle phase — expansion, peak, recession, recovery — helps place every signal into a wider picture rather than deciding in a vacuum. Key macro variables share relationships that repeat through history. Inflation and interest rates usually move together, the dollar index influences commodities and multinational profits, and the bond yield curve has historically been a watched indicator of economic change. Sector rotation then describes how capital shifts between sectors depending on where we are in the cycle — defensive sectors (utilities, staples) tend to be stronger in uncertainty, cyclicals (technology, industrials) in expansion. QMA reflects the macro regime in its scoring: in a different environment the pillars carry different weight. The goal is not to forecast the market with certainty — nobody can — but to understand the conditions in which you decide. The scenario descriptions here are structured and conditional (bull / base / bear), never forecasts stated with certainty.
Macro & market cycles articles
Inversion de la courbe des taux : un signal que les économistes observent depuis des décennies
Lorsque les taux d'intérêt des obligations à deux ans ont dépassé ceux des obligations à dix ans, les économistes ont pris note. Que signifie réellement cette « inversion » — et pourquoi elle n'est pas une boule de cristal.
Comment identifier ce qui fait bouger le marché aujourd'hui — et pourquoi
Actualisez-vous dix sites d'information et une douzaine de cours chaque matin pour tenter de comprendre ce qui se passe ? Ce guide en langage clair explique ce qui fait vraiment bouger les marchés — résultats d'entreprises, données économiques, rotation sectorielle, catalyseurs, géopolitique — et, plus important encore, comment lire le « pourquoi » derrière un mouvement plutôt que de courir après les plus fortes hausses.