Seasonal Calendar — Market Calendar Patterns and How to Read Them

The Seasonal Calendar tab (/seasonality) answers a simple yet powerful question: “Which stock tends to be historically strong during this specific time of the year — and how reliable is it?" It's not a crystal ball. It's a map of recurring patterns.

QMA Team: “Seasonality is one of the most misunderstood tools. People either blindly worship it or dismiss it as superstition. The truth lies in the middle: it's a statistical tendency backed by real mechanisms — and when you read it correctly and combine it with context, it gives you a small but repeatable edge."

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What Seasonality Is and Why It Exists

Seasonality is the tendency of prices to behave similarly during a certain calendar period, year after year. It has specific causes:

Driver	How it Creates a Pattern	Example
Tax Cycles	Tax-loss selling at year-end, buyback in January	January effect
Earnings Cycles	Market positions itself ahead of reports	Strength before a good report
Fund Behavior	Rebalancing at quarter-end, window dressing	Pressure on strong stocks in Q4
Seasonal Business	Retail from Christmas, energy from summer/winter	Retail strong in fall
Retail Behavior	Investments from bonuses, fewer trades in summer	Summer lull, Sell in May

★ Insight: Seasonality is human behavior fixed in the calendar. The market is made up of people and institutions that behave according to fixed deadlines (taxes, paydays, deadlines, Christmas). These deadlines repeat → so do the pressures on price.

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How to Read Seasonal Edge — Historical Success ≠ Certainty

When QMA shows you a “seasonal success rate of 78% over 15 years in the window 10/10 – 11/5," it means: in the past, the stock rose in this window 78% of the time.

What it DOES NOT mean: that it will rise this year with 78% certainty; that it is a recommendation.
What it DOES mean: there was a recurring tendency (a loaded die); you have a statistical reason to look closer; it's one entry signal among many.

★ Insight: Seasonality shifts probabilities, not certainties. A pro won't say “it will rise because it's the season." They'll say “seasonality gives me a slight edge — if other signals and context confirm it, it's a valid setup."

Sample size matters. A pattern over 5 years is almost worthless (3 out of 5 = 60% is chance). A pattern over 15–20 years carries a signal. Always check how many years the success rate is calculated from.

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What the Tab Contains

1. Horizon Slider (1–90 days) — short (1–14 d, swing), medium (15–45 d, sweet spot), long (46–90 d, positional). Start with medium (~20–30 days).

2. Per-stock Seasonal Edge — historical success in the chosen window, average return, number of years.

3. Signal Strength Score — combines success rate, consistency, sample size, return size.

4. Seasonality TOP 5 — concentrated beginner strategy: 5 strongest current seasonal positions.

Metric	Value
Performance vs index	see the live tracking page for the current state
Number of positions	5

🚨 CORRECTION NOTE (31 July 2026). Specific performance figures (alpha, win rate, sample

size) are being withdrawn from QMA's public surfaces — which is why you will not find them in

this text. They were computed through a historical scores table whose older part was derived from

later prices, and since 31 July 2026 a stricter significance threshold applies, derived from every

trial ever run. The figures are not replaced by lower ones — the input data was never valid as

of the day in question. This text describes what the tool does, not what result it produced.

Only forward tracking since 18 February 2026 is probative.

★ Insight: Concentration is an edge — IF you have reason to trust the selection. Diversification protects against ignorance. If you have a model that says “5 strongest loaded dice," diluting it to 50 positions means throwing most of the advantage away. BUT five positions fluctuate more than fifty — higher volatility. It's not a “safe" strategy; don't put money into it whose fluctuation would keep you up at night.

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Famous Patterns and Their Limits

Sell in May — November–April historically stronger. Limit: weakened in recent decades; dangerous as a rule.
Santa Rally — rise in the last ~5 days of the year + first ~2 of January. Limit: small effect with large dispersion.
January Effect — small firms outperform in January. Limit: diminishing as people front-run it.

★ Insight: The more famous the pattern, the weaker the edge. Once a pattern is known, people front-run and dilute it. QMA's value lies in per-stock, less-known patterns.

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Presidential Cycle

The four-year U.S. election cycle. Year 3 (pre-election) is historically the strongest (administration stimulates the economy before elections). Limit: based on few cycles (~25 in 100 years) = thin ice. Contextual curiosity, not a rule.

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⚠️ CRITICAL: Seasonality is a Past Tendency, Not a Prediction

The most honest example from QMA: year 2026, in-sample test. In the extreme bull rally of 2026, seasonal timing strategies lagged behind the index — in an environment where the market is almost always rising, timing can't keep up with someone who was simply in the market the whole time.

Seasonality works best in a “normal" mixed regime (2020–2025). In extremes (strong rally/crash), calendar patterns are overridden by current macro strength. Past ≠ future.

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How to Combine with Other Signals (Never Solo)

Layer	What to Check
🗓️ Seasonality	High success rate, enough years, good score
📊 Technicals	Stock in an uptrend, not in free fall
💰 Fundamentals	Company isn't broken
🐋 Smart Money	Insiders/institutions buying in the same direction
🌍 Macro Regime	Market isn't in an extreme

★ Insight: Seasonality is best as a tiebreaker, not a trigger. When choosing between two similar stocks and one has a strong seasonal edge — that's the final drop of conviction.

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Practical Procedure

1. Set the horizon (~20–30 days).
2. Review the seasonal edge — success rate 70%+ and 15+ years and good score.
3. Check the TOP 5 (understand concentration = volatility).
4. Verify context — extreme regime? Uptrend? Fundamentals?
5. Look for confluence (3+ layers).
6. Define risk — seasonality doesn't negate a stop.

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Tips

1. Always check the number of years (5 = noise, 15+ = signal).
2. Prefer less-known per-stock patterns over textbook clichés.
3. Seasonality as a filter, not a trigger.
4. Respect the macro regime.
5. Expect higher volatility with TOP 5.

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Common Mistakes

Blind faith in a pattern · ignoring market context · small sample of years · seasonality solo · front-running famous patterns · forgetting risk management.

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Summary

The Seasonal Calendar is a map of recurring calendar patterns based on real mechanisms. It provides a per-stock edge, horizon slider, strength score, and TOP 5. Key: seasonality is a statistical tendency from the past, not a prediction. It's a layer in the mosaic, a tiebreaker, a filter — never the sole reason for a trade.

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Seasonal patterns describe historical tendency, not certainty — past performance is not indicative of future results. Concentrated strategies (incl. TOP 5) carry increased risk of volatility and loss. Decisions are made at your own risk; consider consulting a licensed advisor. QMA is an analytical and educational tool.