⚡आज के सेटअप — स्विंग पैटर्न और क्यों संकेतों का संगम जीतता है
📘 Educational, historical example — NOT a current signal, recommendation or order to trade. The specific numbers (entries, risk and target levels, success rate, holding period) are illustrative and refer to the past. Past results do not guarantee future ones. QMA is an analytical and educational tool, not investment advice.
Today's Setups — Swing Patterns and Why Confluence Wins
The Today's Setups tab (/patterns/today) is a daily analytical scan of the entire market, answering one question: “Which stocks have shown a technical pattern today that statistically preceded a move in the coming days to weeks?" It's not a "what to buy" list — it's a descriptive map of data that the reader interprets themselves. This article is an educational guide to understanding the page.
★ Insight — what is a "swing": Swing trading is the middle ground between day trading and investing. You typically hold for days to weeks. Signals on this page are valid for about two weeks, not years.
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1. What is a swing pattern and why patterns work
A technical pattern is a recurring shape in the price and volume chart that forms because people behave similarly in similar situations. The chart is a fingerprint of the crowd's collective psychology.
| Pattern | What's Happening | Psychology |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout | Price breaks a long level with volume | Sellers exhausted |
| VCP (volatility contraction) | Series of smaller declines, chart "contracts" | Weak hands sold out |
| Episodic pivot | Volume spike after a catalyst | Market re-evaluates the company |
| Flag | Sharp move, short consolidation | A short rest |
| Squeeze breakout | Extremely low volatility, then a burst | Calm precedes a move |
★ Insight: Consolidation is a "truce" between buyers and sellers. The breakout moment is when one side has clearly won. No pattern is a prophecy; it just shifts the probability.
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2. Confluence count — why confluence of signals is a real advantage
The most valuable thing on the page is the confluence count — the number of independent patterns on the same stock. An empirical study over 23,325 events in 180 days:
| Concurrent signals | Win rate | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Solo (1) | ~52.2% | Barely better than a coin flip |
| 2–4 | ~52–53% | Still noise |
| 5–9 | ~55.8% | An edge is forming |
★ Insight: Each pattern is a weak signal. But when a stock "screams" breakout and VCP and squeeze simultaneously, it's unlikely to be a coincidence. Value is in confluence of 5+, ideally 10+, not in lone signals.
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3. Tiers of setup strength
| Tier | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 🦄 UNICORN | Extreme consensus (10+ signals) |
| 💎 DIAMOND | Very strong consensus |
| ⭐ ELITE | Above-average consensus |
| 🟢 STRONG | Decent, not exceptional |
| 👁️ WATCH | Weak/solo — just observe |
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4. How to read win rate — raw WR, Wilson, n
The page shows three numbers, not one: raw win rate, the Wilson 95% interval, and n (number of trades). n is the most important.
★ Insight: You flip a coin 4 times and get heads 3 times → "75%". Is the coin biased? No — the sample is laughable. Wilson does it honestly: at n=4 "between 30% and 95%" = we know nothing. At n=805 the interval narrows to a few percent.
| n | How to take it |
|---|---|
| < 30 | Exploratory — inconclusive |
| 30–100 | Indicative |
| > 100 | Solid |
| > 500 | Robust |
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5. Freshness and validity
| Chip | Age | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Fresh | 0–4 days | Ideal window |
| 🟡 Maturing | 5–8 days | Part of the move may have occurred |
| 🟠 Aging | 9–12 days | Approaching expiration |
| 🔴 Expired | 13+ days | Out of date |
★ Insight: With an expired breakout the price has already covered much of the move — entering near the target means a distant stop and a poor risk/reward.
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6. Detail panel — how to read a pattern's plan
The detail panel describes what the pattern looks like: validity and freshness, type of confirmation (break above resistance vs. a retest), levels at which the pattern could be considered broken (pattern-failure), and how a profit portion could be taken in stages. It is a description of the pattern's properties, not a trade instruction or a ready-made order.
★ Insight — why take profit in parts: Gradual profit-taking and moving the protective level to break-even is a classic risk-management technique — part of the gain "in the pocket", the rest left to run.
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7. Risk management in swing (general principles)
| Principle | Why |
|---|---|
| A logical failure level | Pattern-failure gives a clear line where the thesis broke |
| Small position | A general principle is to risk only a small fraction of the account per trade |
| Time limit | Swing is not an investment — don't hold dead capital indefinitely |
| Diversification | Correlated positions = hidden risk increase |
| Plan in advance | Know entry, failure level, targets, time limit beforehand |
★ Insight: A small loss on a disproven pattern is the price for a series of big wins. Asymmetry is the whole secret.
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8. Common mistakes
| Mistake | Correction |
|---|---|
| Chasing expired signals | Take only 🟢/🟡 |
| Ignoring pattern-failure | Always know the level where the thesis broke |
| Too large a position | Risk only a small fraction of the account |
| Relying on raw WR with small n | Read Wilson + n |
| Chasing solo signals | Look for confluence 5+ |
Summary
Today's setups are a daily analytical map of technical opportunities. The greatest strength is confluence count — the accumulation of independent patterns historically raised success from ~52% toward ~71%. Tiers sort quality, but the numbers beneath them decide (raw WR, Wilson, n). Freshness protects against chasing out-of-date signals. An honest swing isn't about guessing direction — it's about patiently selecting high-quality fresh statistically-backed situations and disciplined risk management. Interpretation and any decision are always up to the user.
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This material is an analytical and educational tool, not an investment recommendation. It describes model behavior and historical observations, not a buy/sell directive. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Results for patterns with a small sample size (n < 30) are exploratory. Trading carries the risk of capital loss. Decisions are up to the user.
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Create a free accountContent created by AI in collaboration with Jaroslav Vojtášek. Not investment advice. The author may hold the stocks mentioned. Investing involves risk of loss.
Operator: Jaroslav Vojtášek, Company ID (IČO) 48783447.