🌍Macro & market cycles
Inflation, interest rates, recessions and sector rotation — the macro context that makes stock picking make sense.
Macro & market cycles — overview
The macroeconomic context is the backdrop against which individual stock selection plays out. Inflation, interest rates, the business cycle and sector rotation decide which kinds of companies have a tailwind and which fight the current. When a central bank raises rates, growth and leveraged companies tend to come under pressure; when rates fall, they revive. Understanding the cycle phase — expansion, peak, recession, recovery — helps place every signal into a wider picture rather than deciding in a vacuum. Key macro variables share relationships that repeat through history. Inflation and interest rates usually move together, the dollar index influences commodities and multinational profits, and the bond yield curve has historically been a watched indicator of economic change. Sector rotation then describes how capital shifts between sectors depending on where we are in the cycle — defensive sectors (utilities, staples) tend to be stronger in uncertainty, cyclicals (technology, industrials) in expansion. QMA reflects the macro regime in its scoring: in a different environment the pillars carry different weight. The goal is not to forecast the market with certainty — nobody can — but to understand the conditions in which you decide. The scenario descriptions here are structured and conditional (bull / base / bear), never forecasts stated with certainty.
Macro & market cycles articles
Inversão da Curva de Juros: Um Sinal que os Economistas Observam há Décadas
Quando as taxas de juros dos títulos de dois anos subiram acima das dos títulos de dez anos, os economistas prestaram atenção. O que significa realmente essa "inversão" — e por que ela não é uma bola de cristal.
Como Identificar o Que Está Movendo o Mercado Hoje — e Por Quê
Você atualiza dez sites de notícias e dezenas de tickers toda manhã só para tentar entender o que está acontecendo? Este guia em linguagem simples mostra o que realmente move os mercados — resultados corporativos, dados econômicos, rotação setorial, catalisadores, geopolítica — e, mais importante, como interpretar o "porquê" por trás de um movimento em vez de perseguir os maiores ganhos do dia.