🌍Macro & market cycles
Inflation, interest rates, recessions and sector rotation — the macro context that makes stock picking make sense.
Macro & market cycles — overview
The macroeconomic context is the backdrop against which individual stock selection plays out. Inflation, interest rates, the business cycle and sector rotation decide which kinds of companies have a tailwind and which fight the current. When a central bank raises rates, growth and leveraged companies tend to come under pressure; when rates fall, they revive. Understanding the cycle phase — expansion, peak, recession, recovery — helps place every signal into a wider picture rather than deciding in a vacuum. Key macro variables share relationships that repeat through history. Inflation and interest rates usually move together, the dollar index influences commodities and multinational profits, and the bond yield curve has historically been a watched indicator of economic change. Sector rotation then describes how capital shifts between sectors depending on where we are in the cycle — defensive sectors (utilities, staples) tend to be stronger in uncertainty, cyclicals (technology, industrials) in expansion. QMA reflects the macro regime in its scoring: in a different environment the pillars carry different weight. The goal is not to forecast the market with certainty — nobody can — but to understand the conditions in which you decide. The scenario descriptions here are structured and conditional (bull / base / bear), never forecasts stated with certainty.
Macro & market cycles articles
Inversión de la curva de rendimientos: una señal que los economistas han observado durante décadas
Cuando los tipos de interés de los bonos a dos años superaron a los de los bonos a diez años, los economistas lo notaron. Qué significa realmente esta "inversión" — y por qué no es una bola de cristal.
Cómo identificar qué mueve el mercado hoy — y por qué
¿Actualizas diez sitios de noticias y una docena de tickers cada mañana solo para entender qué está pasando? Esta guía en lenguaje sencillo muestra qué mueve realmente los mercados — resultados empresariales, datos económicos, rotación sectorial, catalizadores, geopolítica — y, más importante, cómo leer el "por qué" detrás de un movimiento en lugar de perseguir los mayores ganadores del día.