📅Super Seasonal Windows: how to read win rate, return & year count

In a nutshell

Super Seasonal Windows is a tool at /seasonality/super-windows that, for roughly 10,000 stocks, precomputes calendar windows where a stock historically rose — e.g. "rose every July for 12 years, +9.2% on average". For each window you see a win rate, an average return and the number of years analyzed. Critical warning: even a 100% history is no guarantee. Past ≠ future.

🔰 Super simple

Some stocks repeatedly have a strong period in a particular month. That's called seasonality. Super Seasonal Windows simply scans thousands of stocks systematically and finds where such a pattern showed up in the past.

For each window you get three numbers:

• Win rate — in how many of the analyzed years the stock rose in that window (e.g. 10 of 12 years = 83%).
• Average return — how much it historically moved in that window on average (e.g. +9.2%).
• Number of years — how many years the calculation is based on. This is the most important number.

⚠️ The most important warning: small sample

A 100% win rate over 5 years is NOT a guarantee. Five years is very little data — a single fluke can make the number look perfect without any real pattern behind it. The more years behind a window, the more trustworthy it is. Always look at the year count before the win rate.

Golden rule: a higher win rate on few years is weaker than a lower win rate on many years. Statistics need repetition.

How it works

QMA scans years of price history for each stock and looks for calendar windows (typically a month) where the price repeatedly behaved similarly. For each window it computes:

Metric	Meaning
Win rate	share of years the stock rose in the window
Average return	average price move in that window
Number of years	length of history = weight of evidence

It's a factual description of the past — not a forecast. None of these numbers say what will happen this year.

🎯 For advanced users

The tool can filter:

• Entry month — show only windows starting in the current (or chosen) month.
• Minimum years — filter out windows with short history (recommended: set it high).
• Minimum win rate — show only windows above a chosen bar.

A meaningful combination: windows entering this month + a high minimum year count + a reasonable win rate. That cuts statistical noise and leaves only windows with enough history.

How to use it in QMA

1. Open /seasonality/super-windows.
2. Set the filter to entry month = current month.
3. Raise the minimum year count high — you want windows with long history.
4. Only then look at the win rate and average return.
5. Treat it as a map of history, where patterns appeared — not a buy list.

💡 What it means for you

Seasonality is one of the few factors you can verify decades back. Super Seasonal Windows does that work across 10,000 stocks and shows you where and when strong months historically repeated. It gives you context — but you control the decision and the risk.

FAQ

If a window has a 100% win rate, is it certain?
No. Especially on few years, it's most likely just chance. The past never guarantees the future.

How many years is "enough"?
The more the better. Five years is very few; ten or more is more trustworthy. But even a long history is no guarantee.

Is entering a window a buy signal?
No. It's a description of a historical pattern. QMA does not give trading instructions.

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Past performance ≠ future results. QMA is not a registered investment advisor.*