Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP): Strong Fundamentals vs. Market Caution

A regional bank with an impressive value score (FVS) of 84 out of 100 — yet the overall QMA score is stuck at 64.2. The company appears to be of high quality from a data perspective, but something is preventing it from fully shining. When we delve into the individual pillars, it becomes clear that the issue is not the business itself, but a combination of weak insider activity and cautious valuation by analysts. Let's break it down by the numbers.

About the Company

Tompkins Financial Corporation (ticker TMP) is an American regional bank in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Banks – Regional category. Its market capitalization is approximately $1.23 billion, placing it among smaller, locally anchored financial institutions.

The business model of a regional bank can be imagined as a classic "money craft": the bank accepts deposits, provides loans to businesses and households, and the difference between the interest paid to depositors and the interest collected from loans forms the core of its earnings. This is supplemented by fee-based and advisory services. Unlike large multinational banks, regional players like TMP build on close relationships with local clientele — their strength is regional knowledge, while their weakness is less diversification.

Current Developments

As of the score calculation date (July 2, 2026), the stock price was at $95.92 — exactly at its 52-week high (distance from the high 0%). Over the past month, it has gained 11.4%, and over three months, 15.4%. The annual closing price range spanned from $58.91 to $95.92, so the stock is trading at the upper edge of its annual range.

This positive price development is also reflected in the relative strength score (RS 78) and momentum (TSS 61.5). The catalyst score associated with results (XS 73) also signals activity around reported figures. The last reported quarter, Q4 2025, saw revenues jump to $226.7 million with a year-over-year growth of 106.2% — more on this in the finance section.

The insider tape over the past approximately 90 days shows a mixed picture: insider purchases amounted to $151.6 thousand (9 individuals), while sales were $224.6 thousand (7 individuals). The predominance of sales corresponds with a low insider score (IAS of only 32.4) — and this is one of the main factors dragging the overall score down.

Why the Company is Interesting — Data Perspective

Reason 1: Exceptionally strong value score. The FVS at 84 is among the highest values in the entire profile. It is supported by a P/E of around 12.8 and a deviation from the model fair value of +174.5% (the model sees room for growth). The data shows that from the perspective of classic value metrics, the market values the company conservatively.

Reason 2: Quality of earnings and financial health. The earnings quality score (EQS 70) and Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicate solid accounting and operational condition. The net margin in the last quarter reached 42.5%, which is high for a bank.

Reason 3: Interest from big money and relative strength. The Smart Money score (WHS 68) and institutional flow (IFS 62) suggest above-average interest from major players, while relative strength (RS 78) confirms that the stock is performing better than the broader market.

Reason 4: What's holding it back. In contrast to the strong fundamentals is the low insider score (IAS 32.4), where sales have outweighed purchases in the last 90 days. This, along with the cautious analyst consensus (see below), is the main factor why the overall score of 64.2 lags behind the value pillar of 84.

Financial Indicators

The revenue trend is consistently growing: from $105.3 million in Q1 2024, gradually through $111.5 (Q3 2024), $116.2 (Q2 2025) to $121.6 million in Q3 2025. The last quarter, Q4 2025, then showed a leap to $226.7 million — which also explains the year-over-year revenue growth of 106.2%. Such a jump is usually associated with one-time or irregular items at banks, so it should be viewed cautiously and not confused with regular operational dynamics.

The net margin has long been in the range of approximately 14.7% to 19.5% (Q3 2025), with the last quarter showing a jump to 42.5%. Net income was $96.2 million.

Free cash flow (FCF) fluctuated in individual quarters: $21.9 (Q1 2024), $29.1 (Q3 2024), then temporarily weakened to $18.3 (Q2 2025) and jumped to $33.9 million in Q3 2025. FCF volatility is common in banks.

From the perspective of capital profitability: ROIC 9.3%, ROE 10.3%. Debt (Debt/Equity 0.7) is moderate for a bank. The number of shares remains stable, meaning shareholders do not face dilution. The Altman Z-Score deserves attention at 0.36 — however, this indicator is difficult to interpret for banks as it was designed for industrial companies.

Valuation in Context

The stock trades with a P/E of around 12.8 and a P/S of 5.44. Lower P/E is typical for regional banks, which the market values more conservatively than growth sectors. High P/S is common for banks because "revenues" are calculated differently than for manufacturing companies.

Regarding analyst consensus: the average target estimate by analysts according to consensus is $74 (from 4 analysts), which would correspond to approximately 22.9% below the price at the time of analysis — these are third-party estimates, not our target or recommendation. The overall third-party rating is "Hold," with a distribution of 1× buy and 3× hold, without sell or strong sell. An interesting paradox: the internal QMA model sees room for growth (deviation +174.5%), while external analysts are more cautious after the rise to the maximum. This divergence is part of what keeps the overall score below the value pillar.

Key Risks

Cyclicality and interest rate environment. Regional banks are sensitive to interest rate developments and the economic cycle. Changes in interest margins directly impact profitability.

Geographic concentration. As a locally anchored bank, TMP is more exposed to the economic health of its region than diversified multinational players.

Insider tape and cautious consensus. Low insider score (IAS 32.4) with a predominance of sales and a "Hold" consensus with a target estimate below the current price signal market caution — especially after the rise to the 52-week high, when the stock is priced at the upper boundary of the annual range.

Interpretation of jump numbers. Year-over-year revenue growth of 106.2% and a jump in net margin to 42.5% in the last quarter should be taken cautiously until repeatability is confirmed in subsequent periods.

---

This text is an automated analytical profile by QMA Brain — a descriptive and educational analysis compiled based on publicly available data and QMA scores. It is not an investment recommendation or a call to buy or sell; QMA is not licensed as an investment advisor. The target estimates provided are third-party opinions, not our target. Past performance does not guarantee future results. [open stock detail in QMA](/